Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raj Pracha vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trat FC
Trat FC
9/18/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4LEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha42%
×Draw27%
Trat FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raj Pracha
1.38
Trat FC
1.15

Raj Pracha creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Raj Pracha
1.18
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Raj Pracha
1.09
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw
69%
Raj Pracha or Trat FC
73%
Draw or Trat FC
58%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+
20%
Trat FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals
75%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
40%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
16%
Trat FC 1+ goals
68%
Trat FC 2+ goals
32%
Trat FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
57%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raj Pracha scores more
42%
level
27%
Trat FC scores more
31%

Raj Pracha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Raj Pracha 1–1 Trat FC

Raj Pracha and Trat FC drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at LEO Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.