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Raj Pracha vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1/8/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 18Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha47%
×Draw26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raj Pracha
1.45
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.03

Raj Pracha creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Raj Pracha
1.18
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Raj Pracha
1.09
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw
73%
Raj Pracha or Nakhon Si Thammarat
74%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
53%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+
23%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals
77%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
42%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
18%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
64%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
28%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
64%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Raj Pracha scores more
47%
level
26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
27%

Raj Pracha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Raj Pracha 0–1 Nakhon Si Thammarat

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Raj Pracha 1-0 in Thai League 2 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎ in Nonthaburi.