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Raith Rovers vs Queen of the South — League #182 2026

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
1/6/2026League #182League #182

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raith Rovers67%
×Draw18%
Queen of the South16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.50
Queen of the South
1.13

Raith Rovers creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
3.25
Queen of the South
1.25

allows per match

Raith Rovers
1.00
Queen of the South
1.75

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
84%
Raith Rovers or Queen of the South
82%
Draw or Queen of the South
33%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
45%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
92%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
71%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
45%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
68%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
31%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
81%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 3.25 + Queen of the South defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Queen of the South attack 1.25 + Raith Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
67%
level
18%
Queen of the South scores more
16%

Raith Rovers at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #182: Raith Rovers 1–0 Queen of the South

Raith Rovers beat Queen of the South 1-0 in League #182 on January 6, 2026.