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Raith Rovers vs Elgin City — League Cup 2026

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Elgin City
Elgin City
R. Millen 73'
K. Montagu 42'
M. Neill 28' (OG)
O. Colloty 62'
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raith Rovers77%
×Draw13%
Elgin City9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.95
Elgin City
0.93

Raith Rovers creates 217% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
2.46
Elgin City
0.71

allows per match

Raith Rovers
1.15
Elgin City
3.43

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Elgin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
91%
Raith Rovers or Elgin City
87%
Draw or Elgin City
23%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
58%
Elgin City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
95%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
79%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
55%
Elgin City 1+ goals
61%
Elgin City 2+ goals
24%
Elgin City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
90%
Elgin City (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Elgin City away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.46 + Elgin City defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.95

Elgin City attack 0.71 + Raith Rovers defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
77%
level
13%
Elgin City scores more
9%

Raith Rovers at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Virtanen
28'
M. NeillOwn goal
36'
A. Lyall← G. Oakley
42'
K. Montagu↳ L. Vaughan
54'
J. MacIver
60'
J. Rowe← L. Stevenson
62'
O. Colloty↳ R. Dingwall
62'
L. Scullion← O. Colloty
63'
M. Gallagher← M. Virtanen
63'
Trialist← M. Grant
70'
K. Turner← C. Telfer
70'
L. Gibson← D. Easton
70'
P. McMullan← J. Robertson
73'
R. Millen
78'
O. Cairns← K. Willox
85'
L. Hyde← J. MacIver

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Elgin City

Raith Rovers beat Elgin City 3-1 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Neill (28' o.g.), K. Montagu (42'), O. Colloty (62'), R. Millen (73').