Raith Rovers 2–4 East Kilbride: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

East Kilbride

L. Vaughan 87'

J. Rowe 69'

J. Robertson 90' (pen), 90', 89'

J. Healy 48'

7/15/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raith Rovers63%

×Draw18%

East Kilbride19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchEast Kilbride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.41

Raith Rovers

2.65

East Kilbride

1.41

Raith Rovers creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

2.58

creates per match

1.57

1.25

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.58

East Kilbride

1.57

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.25

East Kilbride

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

East Kilbride →

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

81%

Raith Rovers or East Kilbride

82%

Draw or East Kilbride

37%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

42%

East Kilbride wins by 2+

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

93%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

74%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

48%

East Kilbride 1+ goals

76%

East Kilbride 2+ goals

41%

East Kilbride 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

77%

East Kilbride (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + East Kilbride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.65

East Kilbride attack 1.57 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

63%

level

18%

East Kilbride scores more

19%

Raith Rovers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

K. Foster← J. Balde

46'

K. Montagu← D. Easton

48'

J. Healy↳ J. Robertson

51'

L. Spence

53'

L. Main

62'

R. Mimnaugh← O. See

69'

J. Hamilton← J. Mullin

69'

J. Rowe↳ J. Mullin

87'

L. Vaughan↳ J. Doherty

89'

J. Robertson↳ L. Main

90'

J. RobertsonPenalty

90'

J. Robertson↳ K. Foster

Raith

East

▼

▼

⚽3A

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Barry Gordon George Robson

46'▲K. Montagu←▼D. Easton

69'▲J. Hamilton←▼J. Mullin

Raith Rovers substitutes

7Chin9Hamilton11Gibson21Byrne24Glavin25Montagu27Hannah30Raeside

Manager: Michael Kennedy

42'▲K. Foster←▼J. Balde

62'▲R. Mimnaugh←▼O. See

East Kilbride substitutes

12Foster14Clelland19Mimnaugh20Niang24Sula27Lyon

League Cup: Raith Rovers 2–4 East Kilbride

East Kilbride beat Raith Rovers 4-2 in League Cup on July 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Healy (48'), J. Rowe (69'), L. Vaughan (87'), J. Robertson (89', 90' pen, 90').

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.

Raith Rovers vs East Kilbride — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Raith Rovers 2–4 East Kilbride