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Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline — League Cup 2018

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
7/15/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Raith Rovers45%
×Draw22%
Dunfermline33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
1.90
Dunfermline
1.59

Raith Rovers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
2.58
Dunfermline
1.94

allows per match

Raith Rovers
1.25
Dunfermline
1.22

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
67%
Raith Rovers or Dunfermline
78%
Draw or Dunfermline
55%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
25%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
85%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
56%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
29%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
80%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
47%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
58%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Dunfermline defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dunfermline attack 1.94 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
45%
level
22%
Dunfermline scores more
33%

Raith Rovers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Raith Rovers 1–1 Dunfermline

Raith Rovers and Dunfermline drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.