Dunfermline 2–0 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Raith Rovers

10/17/2025

League #180 · Round 11East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dunfermline56%

×Draw26%

Raith Rovers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.75

Dunfermline

1.52

Raith Rovers

0.75

Dunfermline creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.93

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dunfermline

1.93

Raith Rovers

1.00

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.50

Raith Rovers

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

82%

Dunfermline or Raith Rovers

74%

Draw or Raith Rovers

44%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

29%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

78%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

45%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

20%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

53%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

17%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

75%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 1.93 + Raith Rovers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.52

Raith Rovers attack 1.00 + Dunfermline defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dunfermline scores more

56%

level

26%

Raith Rovers scores more

18%

Dunfermline at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff