Raith Rovers 2–0 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunfermline

C. Ugwu 89'

L. Vaughan 64'

5/8/2021

Premiership · Relegation RoundStark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Raith Rovers40%

×Draw29%

Dunfermline31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.00

Raith Rovers

1.17

Dunfermline

1.00

Raith Rovers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Raith Rovers

1.00

Dunfermline

0.33

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.67

Dunfermline

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

69%

Raith Rovers or Dunfermline

71%

Draw or Dunfermline

60%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

69%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

33%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

63%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

26%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

56%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 1.00 + Dunfermline defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Dunfermline attack 0.33 + Raith Rovers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

40%

level

29%

Dunfermline scores more

31%

Raith Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

62'

64'

67'

70'

70'

76'

76'

76'

82'

85'

Fernandy Mendy← I. Davidson

85'

F. Murray← E. Murray

89'

C. Ugwu↳ B. Spencer

Raith4-2-3-1

Dunfermline4-4-2

7

O'Hara

9

▼

8

23

3

22

▼

Mayo

2

Comrie

5

▼

44

16

1

1

2

3

6

4

▼

Davidson

8

Hendry

12

▼

Matthews

10

⚽

Vaughan

13

A

Spencer

7

Armstrong

32

▼

Gullan

Manager: J. McGlynn

76'▲D. Tait←▼R. Matthews

82'▲C. Ugwu←▼J. Gullan

85'▲Fernandy Mendy←▼I. Davidson

Raith Rovers substitutes

18Tait23Ugwu5Mendy22Cooney17Thomson11Abraham26King

Manager: S. Crawford

70'▲S. Banks←▼C. Wighton

70'▲D. McManus←▼L. Mayo

85'▲F. Murray←▼E. Murray

Dunfermline substitutes

25Banks10McManus21Murray24McInroy20Gill6MacDonald13Gašpuitis