Raith Rovers 0–3 Dundee: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dundee

5/12/2021

Premiership · Relegation RoundStark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Raith Rovers42%

×Draw25%

Dundee33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchDundee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.30

Raith Rovers

1.50

Dundee

1.30

Raith Rovers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 85 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Raith Rovers

1.00

Dundee

0.93

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.67

Dundee

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Dundee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

67%

Raith Rovers or Dundee

75%

Draw or Dundee

58%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Dundee wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Dundee 1+ goals

73%

Dundee 2+ goals

37%

Dundee 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

56%

Dundee (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Dundee away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 1.00 + Dundee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dundee attack 0.93 + Raith Rovers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

42%

level

25%

Dundee scores more

33%

Raith Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff