Raith Rovers 3–0 Auchinleck Talbot: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Auchinleck Talbot

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundStark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raith Rovers37%

×Draw24%

Auchinleck Talbot39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchAuchinleck Talbot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.58

Raith Rovers

1.54

Auchinleck Talbot

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

2.92

0.25

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.00

Auchinleck Talbot

2.92

allows per match

Raith Rovers

0.25

Auchinleck Talbot

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

61%

Raith Rovers or Auchinleck Talbot

76%

Draw or Auchinleck Talbot

63%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

18%

Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

79%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

45%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

20%

Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals

79%

Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals

47%

Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

49%

Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.00 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Raith Rovers defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

37%

level

24%

Auchinleck Talbot scores more

39%

Auchinleck Talbot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff