Raith Rovers 2–0 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Albion Rovers

C. Duffy 90+2' (OG)

J. Mullin 76'

7/18/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Raith Rovers73%

×Draw15%

Albion Rovers11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

0.96

Raith Rovers

2.68

Albion Rovers

0.96

Raith Rovers creates 179% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

2.58

creates per match

0.67

1.25

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.58

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.25

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Albion Rovers →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

89%

Raith Rovers or Albion Rovers

85%

Draw or Albion Rovers

27%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

52%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

93%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

74%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

49%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

62%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

25%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

87%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.68

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

73%

level

15%

Albion Rovers scores more

11%

Raith Rovers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Bright Prince← C. Wilson

62'

D. McMahon

76'

J. Mullin↳ S. Stanton

80'

R. Paterson← A. McCaw

90+2'

C. DuffyOwn goal

Raith

Albion

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

Manager: I. Murray

Raith Rovers substitutes

30Masson13McNeil25Arnott26Mitchell17Thomson

Manager: S. Clark

61'▲Bright Prince←▼C. Wilson

80'▲R. Paterson←▼A. McCaw

Albion Rovers substitutes

20Prince18Paterson22Henderson19Tran17Walker12McMenemy

League Cup: Raith Rovers 2–0 Albion Rovers

Raith Rovers beat Albion Rovers 2-0 in League Cup on July 18, 2023.

Goals: J. Mullin (76'), C. Duffy (90+2' o.g.).

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.

Raith Rovers vs Albion Rovers — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Raith Rovers 2–0 Albion Rovers