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Rainbow vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
4/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow35%
×Draw30%
Nairobi United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.04
Nairobi United
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
64%
Rainbow or Nairobi United
70%
Draw or Nairobi United
65%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
13%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
65%
Rainbow 2+ goals
28%
Rainbow 3+ goals
9%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
65%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
29%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
49%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rainbow scores more
35%
level
30%
Nairobi United scores more
36%

Nairobi United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rainbow 1–0 Nairobi United

Rainbow beat Nairobi United 1-0 in Super League on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.