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Rainbow vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
10/15/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow47%
×Draw28%
Migori Youth25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.32
Migori Youth
0.87

Rainbow creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
75%
Rainbow or Migori Youth
72%
Draw or Migori Youth
53%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
22%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
73%
Rainbow 2+ goals
38%
Rainbow 3+ goals
15%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
58%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
22%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
66%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rainbow scores more
47%
level
28%
Migori Youth scores more
25%

Rainbow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rainbow vs Migori Youth

Migori Youth beat Rainbow 1-0 in Super League on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.