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Rainbow vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
12/2/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow41%
×Draw28%
Mara Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.27
Mara Sugar
1.07

Rainbow creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
69%
Rainbow or Mara Sugar
72%
Draw or Mara Sugar
59%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
18%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
72%
Rainbow 2+ goals
36%
Rainbow 3+ goals
14%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
57%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rainbow scores more
41%
level
28%
Mara Sugar scores more
31%

Rainbow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rainbow 0–0 Mara Sugar

Rainbow and Mara Sugar drew 0-0 in Super League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.