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Rainbow vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
CANC
13:00
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
3/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Camp Toyoyo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow49%
×Draw29%
Dimba Patriots22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.29
Dimba Patriots
0.75

Rainbow creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
78%
Rainbow or Dimba Patriots
71%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
51%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
23%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
72%
Rainbow 2+ goals
37%
Rainbow 3+ goals
14%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
53%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
17%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
69%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rainbow scores more
49%
level
29%
Dimba Patriots scores more
22%

Rainbow at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rainbow host Dimba Patriots

March 9, 2024: Rainbow take on Dimba Patriots in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rainbow host Dimba Patriots at Camp Toyoyo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.