Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rainbow vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
1 – 0
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
9/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow49%
×Draw28%
Darajani Gogo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.33
Darajani Gogo
0.82

Rainbow creates 62% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
77%
Rainbow or Darajani Gogo
72%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
51%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
23%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
74%
Rainbow 2+ goals
38%
Rainbow 3+ goals
15%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
56%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
20%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
68%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rainbow scores more
49%
level
28%
Darajani Gogo scores more
23%

Rainbow at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rainbow vs Darajani Gogo

Rainbow beat Darajani Gogo 1-0 in Super League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.