Rainbow 2–1 Coastal Heroes: Result & Stats

Rainbow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coastal Heroes

12/17/2023

Super League · Round 14KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow59%

×Draw23%

Coastal Heroes17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RainbowExpected goals in this matchCoastal Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.82

Rainbow

1.75

Coastal Heroes

0.82

Rainbow creates 113% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

1.39

creates per match

0.81

0.83

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Rainbow

1.39

Coastal Heroes

0.81

allows per match

Rainbow

0.83

Coastal Heroes

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Coastal Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw

83%

Rainbow or Coastal Heroes

77%

Draw or Coastal Heroes

41%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+

34%

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals

83%

Rainbow 2+ goals

52%

Rainbow 3+ goals

25%

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

56%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

20%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)

77%

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rainbow scores more

59%

level

23%

Coastal Heroes scores more

17%

Rainbow at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff