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Rain / Lech vs Pipinsried — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Rain / Lech
Rain / Lech
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pipinsried
Pipinsried
2/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 25Georg-Weber-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rain / Lech44%
×Draw23%
Pipinsried33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rain / Lech
1.72
Pipinsried
1.45

Rain / Lech creates 19% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rain / Lech
1.28
Pipinsried
1.08

allows per match

Rain / Lech
1.82
Pipinsried
2.16

finishing

Rain / Lech+0.00on par
Pipinsried+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rain / Lech ↓

Pipinsried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rain / Lech or draw
67%
Rain / Lech or Pipinsried
77%
Draw or Pipinsried
56%

Winning margin

Rain / Lech wins by 2+
23%
Pipinsried wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rain / Lech 1+ goals
82%
Rain / Lech 2+ goals
51%
Rain / Lech 3+ goals
25%
Pipinsried 1+ goals
77%
Pipinsried 2+ goals
42%
Pipinsried 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rain / Lech (draw refunded)
57%
Pipinsried (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rain / Lech at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

Pipinsried away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rain / Lech attack 1.28 + Pipinsried defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pipinsried attack 1.08 + Rain / Lech defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rain / Lech scores more
44%
level
23%
Pipinsried scores more
33%

Rain / Lech at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rain / Lech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Rain / Lech 0–0 Pipinsried

Rain / Lech and Pipinsried drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Georg-Weber-Stadion in Rain.