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Rain / Lech vs Landsberg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Rain / Lech
Rain / Lech
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Landsberg
Landsberg
4/19/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 30Georg-Weber-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rain / Lech26%
×Draw22%
Landsberg52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rain / Lech
1.33
Landsberg
1.97

Landsberg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rain / Lech
1.36
Landsberg
1.92

allows per match

Rain / Lech
2.03
Landsberg
1.30

finishing

Rain / Lech+0.00on par
Landsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rain / Lech ↓

Landsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rain / Lech or draw
48%
Rain / Lech or Landsberg
78%
Draw or Landsberg
74%

Winning margin

Rain / Lech wins by 2+
11%
Landsberg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Rain / Lech 1+ goals
74%
Rain / Lech 2+ goals
38%
Rain / Lech 3+ goals
15%
Landsberg 1+ goals
86%
Landsberg 2+ goals
58%
Landsberg 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rain / Lech (draw refunded)
33%
Landsberg (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rain / Lech at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Landsberg away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.30 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rain / Lech attack 1.36 + Landsberg defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Landsberg attack 1.92 + Rain / Lech defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rain / Lech scores more
26%
level
22%
Landsberg scores more
52%

Landsberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Landsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Rain / Lech 1–3 Landsberg

Landsberg beat Rain / Lech 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Georg-Weber-Stadion in Rain.