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Rain / Lech vs Kirchheimer SC — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Rain / Lech
Rain / Lech
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
9/23/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 12Georg-Weber-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rain / Lech49%
×Draw23%
Kirchheimer SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rain / Lech
1.85
Kirchheimer SC
1.37

Rain / Lech creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rain / Lech
1.36
Kirchheimer SC
0.71

allows per match

Rain / Lech
2.03
Kirchheimer SC
2.35

finishing

Rain / Lech+0.00on par
Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rain / Lech ↓

Kirchheimer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rain / Lech or draw
71%
Rain / Lech or Kirchheimer SC
77%
Draw or Kirchheimer SC
51%

Winning margin

Rain / Lech wins by 2+
27%
Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rain / Lech 1+ goals
84%
Rain / Lech 2+ goals
55%
Rain / Lech 3+ goals
28%
Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
75%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
40%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rain / Lech (draw refunded)
63%
Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rain / Lech at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rain / Lech attack 1.36 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Rain / Lech defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rain / Lech scores more
49%
level
23%
Kirchheimer SC scores more
29%

Rain / Lech at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rain / Lech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rain / Lech vs Kirchheimer SC

Kirchheimer SC beat Rain / Lech 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Georg-Weber-Stadion in Rain.