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Rahoveci vs Drita — Cup 2019

Rahoveci
Rahoveci
FT
0 – 3
Drita
Dritaadvanced
12/3/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rahoveci4%
×Draw10%
Drita86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahoveci
0.48
Drita
2.96

Drita creates 517% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rahoveci
0.33
Drita
3.25

allows per match

Rahoveci
2.67
Drita
0.63

finishing

Rahoveci+0.00on par
Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahoveci ↓

Drita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–110%
0–215%
0–314%
0–411%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rahoveci or draw
14%
Rahoveci or Drita
90%
Draw or Drita
96%

Winning margin

Rahoveci wins by 2+
1%
Drita wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Rahoveci 1+ goals
38%
Rahoveci 2+ goals
8%
Rahoveci 3+ goals
1%
Drita 1+ goals
95%
Drita 2+ goals
79%
Drita 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Rahoveci (draw refunded)
4%
Drita (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahoveci at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Drita away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahoveci attack 0.33 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Drita attack 3.25 + Rahoveci defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Rahoveci scores more
4%
level
10%
Drita scores more
86%

Drita at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rahoveci vs Drita

Drita beat Rahoveci 3-0 in Cup on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi me bar sintetik Gjilan in Gnjilane.