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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Fortis — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fortis
Fortis
4/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS32%
×Draw26%
Fortis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.24
Fortis
1.44

Fortis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 37 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Fortis
1.46

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Fortis
1.19

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Fortis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Fortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
58%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Fortis
74%
Draw or Fortis
68%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
14%
Fortis wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
71%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
35%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
13%
Fortis 1+ goals
76%
Fortis 2+ goals
42%
Fortis 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
44%
Fortis (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Fortis away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Fortis defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fortis attack 1.46 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
32%
level
26%
Fortis scores more
42%

Fortis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rahmatgonj MFS 1 – 2 Fortis

Fortis beat Rahmatgonj MFS 2-1 in Premier League on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.