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Rågsved vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Rågsved
Rågsved
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mjölby
Mjölby
6/25/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 13Hagsätra IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rågsved62%
×Draw19%
Mjölby19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rågsved
2.41
Mjölby
1.26

Rågsved creates 91% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 40 away

creates per match

Rågsved
2.29
Mjölby
1.23

allows per match

Rågsved
1.29
Mjölby
2.52

finishing

Rågsved+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rågsved ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rågsved or draw
81%
Rågsved or Mjölby
81%
Draw or Mjölby
38%

Winning margin

Rågsved wins by 2+
41%
Mjölby wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rågsved 1+ goals
91%
Rågsved 2+ goals
69%
Rågsved 3+ goals
43%
Mjölby 1+ goals
72%
Mjölby 2+ goals
36%
Mjölby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rågsved (draw refunded)
77%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rågsved at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rågsved attack 2.29 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.41

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Rågsved defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rågsved scores more
62%
level
19%
Mjölby scores more
19%

Rågsved at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rågsved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Rågsved 4–0 Mjölby

Rågsved beat Mjölby 4-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Hagsätra IP in Stockholm.