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Rafeeq vs Alittihad Misurata — Premier League 2019

Rafeeq
Rafeeq
FT
1 – 1
Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
7/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rafeeq40%
×Draw28%
Alittihad Misurata32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rafeeq
1.25
Alittihad Misurata
1.10

Rafeeq creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 63 away

creates per match

Rafeeq
1.36
Alittihad Misurata
0.84

allows per match

Rafeeq
1.36
Alittihad Misurata
1.14

finishing

Rafeeq+0.00on par
Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rafeeq ↓

Alittihad Misurata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rafeeq or draw
68%
Rafeeq or Alittihad Misurata
72%
Draw or Alittihad Misurata
60%

Winning margin

Rafeeq wins by 2+
17%
Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rafeeq 1+ goals
71%
Rafeeq 2+ goals
36%
Rafeeq 3+ goals
13%
Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
67%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
30%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rafeeq (draw refunded)
55%
Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rafeeq at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Alittihad Misurata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rafeeq attack 1.36 + Alittihad Misurata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Alittihad Misurata attack 0.84 + Rafeeq defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rafeeq scores more
40%
level
28%
Alittihad Misurata scores more
32%

Rafeeq at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rafeeq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rafeeq vs Alittihad Misurata

Rafeeq and Alittihad Misurata drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 19, 2021.