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Radunia Stężyca vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
10/1/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Radunia Stężyca50%
×Draw23%
Zagłębie Lubin II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.79
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.24

Radunia Stężyca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 52 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.98

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
73%
Radunia Stężyca or Zagłębie Lubin II
77%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
50%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
28%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
83%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
53%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
26%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
71%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
35%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
65%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
50%
level
23%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
27%

Radunia Stężyca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 3–0 Zagłębie Lubin II

Radunia Stężyca beat Zagłębie Lubin II 3-0 in II Liga - East on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.