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Radunia Stężyca vs Wieczysta Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
4/25/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radunia Stężyca29%
×Draw26%
Wieczysta Kraków45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.15
Wieczysta Kraków
1.49

Wieczysta Kraków creates 30% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Wieczysta Kraków
1.71

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Wieczysta Kraków
0.71

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
55%
Radunia Stężyca or Wieczysta Kraków
74%
Draw or Wieczysta Kraków
71%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
12%
Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
68%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
32%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
11%
Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
77%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
44%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
39%
Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.15

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.71 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
29%
level
26%
Wieczysta Kraków scores more
45%

Wieczysta Kraków at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 1–0 Wieczysta Kraków

Radunia Stężyca beat Wieczysta Kraków 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.