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Radunia Stężyca vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 0
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
3/27/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Boisko treningowe Stężycy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca69%
×Draw17%
Unia Swarzędz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
2.51
Unia Swarzędz
1.04

Radunia Stężyca creates 141% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 84 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
86%
Radunia Stężyca or Unia Swarzędz
83%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
31%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
47%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
92%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
71%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
45%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
65%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
28%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
83%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.51

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
69%
level
17%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
14%

Radunia Stężyca at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radunia Stężyca vs Unia Swarzędz

Radunia Stężyca beat Unia Swarzędz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko treningowe Stężycy in Stężyca.