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Radunia Stężyca vs Świt Skolwin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
3 – 0
Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca64%
×Draw19%
Świt Skolwin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
2.29
Świt Skolwin
1.08

Radunia Stężyca creates 112% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 66 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Świt Skolwin
1.59

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Świt Skolwin
1.09

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Świt Skolwin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Świt Skolwin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
83%
Radunia Stężyca or Świt Skolwin
81%
Draw or Świt Skolwin
36%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
41%
Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
90%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
66%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
40%
Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
66%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
29%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
79%
Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Świt Skolwin away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.29

Świt Skolwin attack 1.59 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
64%
level
19%
Świt Skolwin scores more
17%

Radunia Stężyca at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Radunia Stężyca 3–0 Świt Skolwin

Radunia Stężyca beat Świt Skolwin 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.