Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radunia Stężyca vs Ruch Chorzów — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
10/10/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 12Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radunia Stężyca36%
×Draw27%
Ruch Chorzów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.24
Ruch Chorzów
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Ruch Chorzów
1.24

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Ruch Chorzów
0.88

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
63%
Radunia Stężyca or Ruch Chorzów
73%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
64%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
16%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
71%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
35%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
13%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
71%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
36%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
50%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
36%
level
27%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
37%

Ruch Chorzów at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 1–2 Ruch Chorzów

Ruch Chorzów beat Radunia Stężyca 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.