Radunia Stężyca 0–1 Polonia Środa: Result & Stats

Radunia Stężyca

FT

0 – 1

Polonia Środa

9/19/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca67%

×Draw18%

Polonia Środa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchPolonia Środa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.15

Radunia Stężyca

2.52

Polonia Środa

1.15

Radunia Stężyca creates 119% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 101 away

3.50

creates per match

1.74

0.56

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

3.50

Polonia Środa

1.74

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

0.56

Polonia Środa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Polonia Środa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

84%

Radunia Stężyca or Polonia Środa

82%

Draw or Polonia Środa

33%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

45%

Polonia Środa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

92%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

71%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

45%

Polonia Środa 1+ goals

68%

Polonia Środa 2+ goals

32%

Polonia Środa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

81%

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.52

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

67%

level

18%

Polonia Środa scores more

16%

Radunia Stężyca at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff