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Radunia Stężyca vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
10/23/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 16Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Radunia Stężyca42%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Siedlce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.58
Pogoń Siedlce
1.40

Radunia Stężyca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 86 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
66%
Radunia Stężyca or Pogoń Siedlce
76%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
58%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
21%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
79%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
47%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
21%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
75%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
41%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
55%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
42%
level
24%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
34%

Radunia Stężyca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radunia Stężyca vs Pogoń Siedlce

Radunia Stężyca beat Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.