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Radunia Stężyca vs Podbeskidzie — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podbeskidzie
Podbeskidzie
3/21/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 23Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radunia Stężyca39%
×Draw25%
Podbeskidzie36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.47
Podbeskidzie
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 34 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Podbeskidzie
1.53

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Podbeskidzie
1.35

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Podbeskidzie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
64%
Radunia Stężyca or Podbeskidzie
75%
Draw or Podbeskidzie
61%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
19%
Podbeskidzie wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
77%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
43%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
18%
Podbeskidzie 1+ goals
75%
Podbeskidzie 2+ goals
41%
Podbeskidzie 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
52%
Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Podbeskidzie attack 1.53 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
39%
level
25%
Podbeskidzie scores more
36%

Radunia Stężyca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 1–0 Podbeskidzie

Radunia Stężyca beat Podbeskidzie 1-0 in II Liga - East on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.