Radunia Stężyca 2–1 Nielba Wągrowiec

Radunia Stężyca

FT

2 – 1

Nielba Wągrowiec

9/6/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radunia Stężyca63%

×Draw18%

Nielba Wągrowiec19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchNielba Wągrowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.40

Radunia Stężyca

2.63

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.40

Radunia Stężyca creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

3.50

creates per match

2.24

0.56

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

3.50

Nielba Wągrowiec

2.24

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

0.56

Nielba Wągrowiec

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

81%

Radunia Stężyca or Nielba Wągrowiec

82%

Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec

37%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

42%

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

93%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

73%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

48%

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals

75%

Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals

41%

Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

77%

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.63

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

63%

level

18%

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more

19%

Radunia Stężyca at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff