Radunia Stężyca 2–2 Górnik Polkowice

Radunia Stężyca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

5/6/2023

II Liga - East · Round 30Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Radunia Stężyca40%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.33

Radunia Stężyca

1.45

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 53 away

1.59

creates per match

1.40

1.27

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.59

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.27

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

65%

Radunia Stężyca or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

60%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

19%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

77%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

42%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

18%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

38%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

54%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

40%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

35%

Radunia Stężyca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff