Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radunia Stężyca vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
9 – 0
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
3/13/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Boisko treningowe Stężycy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radunia Stężyca85%
×Draw10%
Chemik Police5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
3.25
Chemik Police
0.72

Radunia Stężyca creates 351% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
95%
Radunia Stężyca or Chemik Police
90%
Draw or Chemik Police
15%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
67%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
96%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
83%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
61%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
51%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
16%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
94%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
85%
level
10%
Chemik Police scores more
5%

Radunia Stężyca at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radunia Stężyca vs Chemik Police

Radunia Stężyca beat Chemik Police 9-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko treningowe Stężycy in Stężyca.