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Radomsko vs Wikielec — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Radomsko
Radomsko
FT
2 – 0
Wikielec
Wikielec
10/11/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radomsko47%
×Draw24%
Wikielec29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomsko
1.67
Wikielec
1.25

Radomsko creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 86 away

creates per match

Radomsko
1.63
Wikielec
1.17

allows per match

Radomsko
1.32
Wikielec
1.72

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par
Wikielec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Wikielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw
71%
Radomsko or Wikielec
76%
Draw or Wikielec
53%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+
25%
Wikielec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals
81%
Radomsko 2+ goals
50%
Radomsko 3+ goals
23%
Wikielec 1+ goals
71%
Wikielec 2+ goals
36%
Wikielec 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)
62%
Wikielec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Wikielec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Wikielec defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Wikielec attack 1.17 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radomsko scores more
47%
level
24%
Wikielec scores more
29%

Radomsko at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomsko vs Wikielec

Radomsko beat Wikielec 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion RKS in Radomsko.