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Radomsko vs Unia Skierniewice — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Radomsko
Radomsko
FT
1 – 1
Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
8/23/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radomsko36%
×Draw24%
Unia Skierniewice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomsko
1.46
Unia Skierniewice
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 86 away

creates per match

Radomsko
1.63
Unia Skierniewice
1.81

allows per match

Radomsko
1.32
Unia Skierniewice
1.29

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par
Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Unia Skierniewice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw
60%
Radomsko or Unia Skierniewice
76%
Draw or Unia Skierniewice
64%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+
17%
Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals
77%
Radomsko 2+ goals
43%
Radomsko 3+ goals
18%
Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
79%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
46%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)
47%
Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radomsko scores more
36%
level
24%
Unia Skierniewice scores more
40%

Unia Skierniewice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomsko vs Unia Skierniewice

Radomsko and Unia Skierniewice drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion RKS in Radomsko.