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Radomsko vs Swit — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Radomsko
Radomsko
FT
4 – 0
Swit
Swit
11/7/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radomsko42%
×Draw24%
Swit34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomsko
1.62
Swit
1.44

Radomsko creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 103 away

creates per match

Radomsko
1.63
Swit
1.55

allows per match

Radomsko
1.32
Swit
1.61

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par
Swit+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Swit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw
66%
Radomsko or Swit
76%
Draw or Swit
58%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+
21%
Swit wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals
80%
Radomsko 2+ goals
48%
Radomsko 3+ goals
22%
Swit 1+ goals
76%
Swit 2+ goals
42%
Swit 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)
55%
Swit (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Swit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Swit defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Swit attack 1.55 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radomsko scores more
42%
level
24%
Swit scores more
34%

Radomsko at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomsko vs Swit

Radomsko beat Swit 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion RKS in Radomsko.