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Radomsko vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Radomsko
Radomsko
FT
0 – 0
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
3/20/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radomsko48%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomsko
1.67
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.23

Radomsko creates 36% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 52 away

creates per match

Radomsko
1.63
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Radomsko
1.32
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw
72%
Radomsko or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
52%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals
81%
Radomsko 2+ goals
50%
Radomsko 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
71%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
35%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)
63%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radomsko scores more
48%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
28%

Radomsko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Radomsko 0–0 Sokół Aleksandrów

Radomsko and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion RKS in Radomsko.