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Radomsko vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Radomsko
Radomsko
FT
4 – 0
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
4/17/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radomsko58%
×Draw22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomsko
1.93
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.05

Radomsko creates 84% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Radomsko
1.63
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Radomsko
1.32
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw
80%
Radomsko or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
78%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
42%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+
34%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals
85%
Radomsko 2+ goals
57%
Radomsko 3+ goals
30%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
65%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
28%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)
74%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radomsko scores more
58%
level
22%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
20%

Radomsko at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Radomsko 4–0 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Radomsko beat Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion RKS in Radomsko.