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Radomsko vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Radomsko
Radomsko
FT
0 – 2
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
6/19/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Stadion RKS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radomsko58%
×Draw21%
Concordia Elbląg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomsko
2.10
Concordia Elbląg
1.18

Radomsko creates 78% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Radomsko
1.63
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Radomsko
1.32
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Radomsko+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomsko ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Radomsko or draw
79%
Radomsko or Concordia Elbląg
79%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
42%

Winning margin

Radomsko wins by 2+
35%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radomsko 1+ goals
88%
Radomsko 2+ goals
62%
Radomsko 3+ goals
35%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
69%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
33%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Radomsko (draw refunded)
74%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomsko at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomsko attack 1.63 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Radomsko defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Radomsko scores more
58%
level
21%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
21%

Radomsko at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Radomsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomsko vs Concordia Elbląg

Concordia Elbląg beat Radomsko 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion RKS in Radomsko.