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Radomlje vs Rogaška — 1. SNL 2026

Radomlje
Radomlje
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rogaška
Rogaška
11/11/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 16Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radomlje44%
×Draw24%
Rogaška31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomlje
1.61
Rogaška
1.31

Radomlje creates 23% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

creates per match

Radomlje
1.17
Rogaška
1.00

allows per match

Radomlje
1.62
Rogaška
2.06

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par
Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Rogaška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw
69%
Radomlje or Rogaška
76%
Draw or Rogaška
56%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+
23%
Rogaška wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals
80%
Radomlje 2+ goals
48%
Radomlje 3+ goals
22%
Rogaška 1+ goals
73%
Rogaška 2+ goals
38%
Rogaška 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)
59%
Rogaška (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 89 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 1.17 + Rogaška defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rogaška attack 1.00 + Radomlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Radomlje scores more
44%
level
24%
Rogaška scores more
31%

Radomlje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radomlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomlje vs Rogaška

Rogaška beat Radomlje 3-1 in 1. SNL on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.