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Radomlje vs Celje — 1. SNL 2026

Radomlje
Radomlje
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Celje
Celje
10/5/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 11Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Radomlje26%
×Draw24%
Celje49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomlje
1.14
Celje
1.65

Celje creates 45% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 125 away

creates per match

Radomlje
1.17
Celje
1.67

allows per match

Radomlje
1.62
Celje
1.10

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par
Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw
51%
Radomlje or Celje
76%
Draw or Celje
74%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+
10%
Celje wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals
68%
Radomlje 2+ goals
32%
Radomlje 3+ goals
11%
Celje 1+ goals
81%
Celje 2+ goals
49%
Celje 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)
35%
Celje (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 89 matches

Celje away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 1.17 + Celje defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Celje attack 1.67 + Radomlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radomlje scores more
26%
level
24%
Celje scores more
49%

Celje at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomlje vs Celje

Celje beat Radomlje 3-0 in 1. SNL on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.