Radomlje 2–0 Brežice: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Radomlje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brežice

G. Primc 85'

A. Pišek 49'

8/3/2019

2. SNL · Round 2Športni park Radomlje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Radomlje65%

×Draw20%

Brežice15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RadomljeExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.91

Radomlje

2.10

Brežice

0.91

Radomlje creates 131% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

2.33

creates per match

0.86

0.95

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Radomlje

2.33

Brežice

0.86

allows per match

Radomlje

0.95

Brežice

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw

85%

Radomlje or Brežice

80%

Draw or Brežice

35%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+

40%

Brežice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals

88%

Radomlje 2+ goals

62%

Radomlje 3+ goals

35%

Brežice 1+ goals

60%

Brežice 2+ goals

23%

Brežice 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)

81%

Brežice (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 2.33 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.10

Brežice attack 0.86 + Radomlje defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Radomlje scores more

65%

level

20%

Brežice scores more

15%

Radomlje at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Radomlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

A. Pišek

58'

L. Filip← D. Božič

66'

M. Predanič← L. Duvnjak

69'

M. Zabukovnik← L. Gojak

73'

P. Turković← F. Soldo

85'

G. Primc

88'

S. Nuhanović← G. Primc

90+3'

D. Laban← G. Trdin

Radomlje

Brežice

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Drobne

69'▲M. Zabukovnik←▼L. Gojak

88'▲S. Nuhanović←▼G. Primc

90+3'▲D. Laban←▼G. Trdin

Radomlje substitutes

ZabukovnikNuhanovićLabanPanjetaCerarLatinčičJakovljevič

Manager: V. Butorac

58'▲L. Filip←▼D. Božič

66'▲M. Predanič←▼L. Duvnjak

73'▲P. Turković←▼F. Soldo

Brežice substitutes

FilipPredaničTurkovićAšičHervolKomljenovićLekaj

Match Recap: Radomlje vs Brežice

Radomlje beat Brežice 2-0 in 2. SNL on August 3, 2019.

Goals: A. Pišek (49'), G. Primc (85').

The match was played at Športni park Radomlje in Radomlje.

Radomlje vs Brežice — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Radomlje vs Brežice