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Radomlje vs Bravo — 1. SNL 2026

Radomlje
Radomlje
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Bravo
Bravo
8/30/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 7Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Radomlje33%
×Draw26%
Bravo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomlje
1.27
Bravo
1.43

Bravo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 125 away

creates per match

Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.23

allows per match

Radomlje
1.62
Bravo
1.38

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par
Bravo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Bravo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw
59%
Radomlje or Bravo
74%
Draw or Bravo
67%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+
14%
Bravo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals
72%
Radomlje 2+ goals
36%
Radomlje 3+ goals
14%
Bravo 1+ goals
76%
Bravo 2+ goals
42%
Bravo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)
45%
Bravo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 89 matches

Bravo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 1.17 + Bravo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bravo attack 1.23 + Radomlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Radomlje scores more
33%
level
26%
Bravo scores more
41%

Bravo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bravo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Radomlje 0–6 Bravo

Bravo beat Radomlje 6-0 in 1. SNL on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.