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Radomlje vs Aluminij — 1. SNL 2026

Radomlje
Radomlje
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aluminij
Aluminij
1/30/20261. SNL1. SNL · Round 19Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Radomlje40%
×Draw25%
Aluminij35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomlje
1.46
Aluminij
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 90 away

creates per match

Radomlje
1.17
Aluminij
1.07

allows per match

Radomlje
1.62
Aluminij
1.74

finishing

Radomlje+0.00on par
Aluminij+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomlje ↓

Aluminij →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radomlje or draw
65%
Radomlje or Aluminij
75%
Draw or Aluminij
60%

Winning margin

Radomlje wins by 2+
19%
Aluminij wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radomlje 1+ goals
77%
Radomlje 2+ goals
43%
Radomlje 3+ goals
18%
Aluminij 1+ goals
74%
Aluminij 2+ goals
39%
Aluminij 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Radomlje (draw refunded)
53%
Aluminij (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomlje at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 89 matches

Aluminij away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomlje attack 1.17 + Aluminij defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aluminij attack 1.07 + Radomlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radomlje scores more
40%
level
25%
Aluminij scores more
35%

Radomlje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Radomlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Radomlje 2–1 Aluminij

Radomlje beat Aluminij 2-1 in 1. SNL on January 30, 2026.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.