Radomiak Radom 3–2 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Radomiak Radom

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Warta Poznań

8/19/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Radomiaka Radom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Radomiak Radom39%

×Draw27%

Warta Poznań34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.18

Radomiak Radom

1.29

Warta Poznań

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

1.45

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.45

Warta Poznań

1.06

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

1.29

Warta Poznań

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

66%

Radomiak Radom or Warta Poznań

73%

Draw or Warta Poznań

61%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

17%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

72%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

37%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

14%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

69%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

33%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

54%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.45 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

39%

level

27%

Warta Poznań scores more

34%

Radomiak Radom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff