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Radomiak Radom vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2018

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
2/5/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Radomiak Radom47%
×Draw25%
Stal Mielec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
1.63
Stal Mielec
1.20

Radomiak Radom creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.45
Stal Mielec
1.11

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
1.29
Stal Mielec
1.80

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
72%
Radomiak Radom or Stal Mielec
75%
Draw or Stal Mielec
53%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
25%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
80%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
48%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
22%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
70%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
34%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
63%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.45 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
47%
level
25%
Stal Mielec scores more
28%

Radomiak Radom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Radomiak Radom 1 – 0 Stal Mielec

Radomiak Radom beat Stal Mielec 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.