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Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
5/13/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 32Stadion Radomiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radomiak Radom49%
×Draw24%
Ruch Chorzów27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
1.69
Ruch Chorzów
1.21

Radomiak Radom creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.45
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
1.29
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
73%
Radomiak Radom or Ruch Chorzów
76%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
51%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
26%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
82%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
50%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
24%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
70%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
34%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
64%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.45 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
49%
level
24%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
27%

Radomiak Radom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów

Ruch Chorzów beat Radomiak Radom 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Radomiaka in Radom.