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Radnik Surdulica vs Zorya Luhansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Radnik Surdulica29%
×Draw20%
Zorya Luhansk51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Surdulica
1.80
Zorya Luhansk
2.40

Zorya Luhansk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Radnik Surdulica
2.00
Zorya Luhansk
3.80

allows per match

Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

finishing

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Surdulica ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Radnik Surdulica or draw
49%
Radnik Surdulica or Zorya Luhansk
80%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
71%

Winning margin

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
14%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
83%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
54%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
27%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
91%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
69%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
36%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Surdulica at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 3.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Surdulica attack 2.00 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Zorya Luhansk attack 3.80 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Radnik Surdulica scores more
29%
level
20%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
51%

Zorya Luhansk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnik Surdulica vs Zorya Luhansk

Radnik Surdulica beat Zorya Luhansk 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.